Outline of Yuval Noah Harari’s Take on the Future

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Introduction

Yuval Noah Harari is an Israeli historian and author known for his thought-provoking books, including “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind,” “Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow,” and “21 Lessons for the 21st Century.” While he doesn’t specifically talk about self-driven limousines and auto-piloted helicopters, Harari explores various aspects of human history, evolution, and the potential future trajectory of our species with compelling rationales.

In his works, Harari offers insights into how technology, artificial intelligence, and societal changes may shape the future. He posits that humans are on the verge of transforming themselves and the world in unprecedented ways. This post highlights some key themes from his writings.

Technological Advancements and the Future of Work

Harari highlights the impact of automation, AI, and algorithms on the job market. He suggests that as technology advances, many traditional jobs may become obsolete, leading to significant shifts in employment patterns. Harari argues that humans will need to adapt and develop new skills to remain relevant in the future labor market.

Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering

Harari explores the potential of biotechnology and genetic engineering to enhance human capabilities and alter the course of evolution. He discusses the possibility of humans becoming a “post-human” species, where individuals may enhance their physical and cognitive abilities through technologies like genetic manipulation, brain-computer interfaces, and cyborg technologies.

Data and Surveillance

Harari examines the implications of the growing collection and utilization of personal data by governments and corporations. He raises concerns about privacy, individual autonomy, and the potential for data misuse. Harari warns about the concentration of power in the hands of those who control the flow of information and calls for the establishment of ethical frameworks to protect individuals’ rights in the digital age.

Global Challenges and Cooperation

Harari emphasizes the need for global cooperation to address pressing challenges such as climate change, nuclear proliferation, and the potential risks associated with emerging technologies. He argues that nationalistic and isolationist approaches hinder effective solutions and advocates for a more global perspective to tackle these issues.

Philosophical and Ethical Questions

Harari delves into philosophical questions regarding human consciousness, free will, and the nature of happiness. He examines how advancements in technology may impact these fundamental aspects of human existence and raises ethical dilemmas that arise from the choices we make as a society.

Postface

It’s important to note that Harari’s writings are based on his interpretation of historical trends, current developments, and speculative projections of the future. While he presents thought-provoking ideas, his views are not without controversy, and there are diverse opinions on the feasibility and desirability of the future scenarios he proposes.

In conclusion, Yuval Noah Harari’s writings offer a unique perspective on the future, exploring the potential impact of technology, biotechnology, data, and global challenges on human society. His works encourage readers to reflect on the opportunities and risks associated with these advancements and the need for thoughtful decision-making to shape a desirable future.

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Saving the Past for the Future

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They say that history always repeats itself. But, what if we are losing our history? How can that be with all the data floating around. Some people commemorate loved ones, both relatives and pets with photos and paintings. Dottie Dowling (see Facebook page) does wonderful photos, especially of animals and Carol McClees, carolsfineart.com,  is frequently commissioned to paint people’s pets so they have a memory of them.

Preserving Books

We are generating more data than at any time in history, but much of it is so ephemeral. Many older books are much more durable than modern books. That is because early books were written on parchment or printed on linen paper or things like that which were very stable. Then they found that you could make paper from wood pulp which was much cheaper. However, it naturally has acid in it unless it is specially treated to be neutral. This causes the paper to degrade over time. So libraries are actually having more trouble preserving some of the early books printed on wood pulp based paper whereas they are having minimal trouble preserving the earlier books printed on other materials.

Preserving Newspapers

Then there are the newspapers. They are printed on a cheap grade of paper, (with the catchy name of newsprint) that are not intended to last since it is expected that they will be read and discarded in a day or two. Libraries and museums that have newspaper collections are having even more trouble preserving these. Many are save by microfilming or now digitizing.

Preserving Film

The earliest films were made with a nitrate base which is very flamable and not very stable. So there is a race on to copy these old films onto or into other media, whether that be newer stable film or digitized. It would be a shame to lose these old films because they give us a visual glimpse into another time.

Preserving Correspondence

Before there were telephones and email and twitter, people wrote letters to each other. These letters give us great insight in historical figures and also into what was happening during different historical periods. Today it is rare for people to write letters. Historians are losing this valuable tool to be able to look back in time. The late 1900s and on into the 2000s, there will be much less that people leave behind. Even if emails are saved, the same care and thought does not go into them.

Preserving Computer Files

We may be compounding the problem by putting so much information online. As file formats change, it is already difficult to go back and read some old file formats, or old floppy disks. And that is only 10 or 20 years ago, not 100 or 200 years ago. What happens if this data is corrupted or there is an electromagnetic pulse that fries the computers the data is on? Will it be properly backed up? It will be interesting in the future to look back and see if this era with so much data floating around is surprisingly bereft of information about it.

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More on Cars

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Are we in for a future of the Jetsons with flying cars? Or as mentioned in a prior post, most people not owning cars, but instead, doing taxis, limo rental, uber type services and the like. Will the cars drive themselves or will we still be at the wheel?

Flying Cars Planned

Well, there are actually some cars that can fly. The problem is the cost. They will probably never be a main stream item. However, one company Terrafugia is designing a flying car they call the TF-X. It uses technology that is already available and would fly at 200 mph and hold 4 people. No pilot’s license would be needed because it would fly itself. Terrafugia says it will probably be ready in 10 years. They have a model that will need a pilot’s license and is close to passing FAA approval and could be ready for sale in one to two years.

There is also a prototype called the AeroMobile. They are on version 3.0 and it is almost ready to be sold as well. It uses regular gasoline so it can be driven into any gas station to refuel.

Is it a Car or a Technology Product?

USA Today had an article where they felt self driving cars are in the future and the near future will be more tech upgrades to cars. At first the article made it sound like automated cars might not happen but later in the article it intimated it might happen in 10 years or so. That seems pretty close. They point out how much technology is going into cars these days and how a lot of tech companies have increasing automotive sales.

They feel like it will take a while because to have self driving cars, it is not like it is on a test track. They have to interact with self driving cars from other manufacturers. Then there is the question of how much will insurance be and also getting the legislation passed to allow it. Not things that will happen overnight.

Another reason it will take a while is that the car industry operates on a different schedule. The tech industry often works on a 6 month time frame, but new car models typically take 5 years to roll out.

Who Makes the Money?

The article says that people like to drive, but we think that those people will be a minority. We do agree though that the car companies may have to worry more about the tech companies like Google. They may come up with their own cars, but they also may change the power structure and where most of the profits go. It may be that the tech companies walk away with most of the profits from cars and the car companies don’t make that much because their part is more commodotized.

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Prophecies of Nostradamus: Facts or Fiction?

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Nostradamus was a French astrologer, physician, and reputed seer who lived in the 16th century. His full name was Michel de Nostredame, but he is commonly known as Nostradamus. He gained fame for his book “Les Propheties” (The Prophecies), a collection of poetic quatrains that purportedly contained predictions about future events.

Nostradamus wrote his prophecies in a cryptic and metaphorical style, often using symbolic language that has led to various interpretations and controversies. It is important to note that many of his writings are open to different meanings and have been subject to extensive speculation and reinterpretation over the centuries.

Nostradamus claimed that his predictions were based on his knowledge of astrology and his ability to see glimpses of the future through visions. He believed that celestial alignments and astrological configurations could provide insights into future events. However, the specific criteria or methodology behind his predictions remain unclear, and it is a matter of ongoing debate and interpretation.

Regarding the accuracy of Nostradamus’ predictions, opinions vary widely. Many of his prophecies are considered vague and open to multiple interpretations, making it difficult to determine their true meaning or assess their accuracy. Some individuals believe that he accurately predicted several major historical events, while others dismiss his prophecies as coincidental or lacking in genuine foresight.

It is important to approach Nostradamus’ predictions with skepticism, as attributing specific events to his prophecies often involves stretching interpretations to fit historical occurrences after the fact. There is no scientific evidence to support the notion that Nostradamus had extraordinary predictive abilities.

While a few of Nostradamus’ quatrains are cited as potentially matching certain events, such as the rise of Adolf Hitler or the Great Fire of London, it is essential to consider that these connections can be subjective and subject to cherry-picking. Nostradamus’ predictions are often seen as vague and open-ended, allowing for multiple interpretations that can be applied retroactively to various events.

In summary, Nostradamus was a historical figure known for his collection of poetic quatrains that have been widely interpreted as predictions about the future. However, the accuracy and legitimacy of his prophecies remain a topic of debate, and caution should be exercised when attributing specific events to his writings.

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Where is humanity headed?

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Remember when you were a kid and your imagination lasted forever? Kids somehow assume that things will keep being the way they are forever. Daddy will never die, mummy will be here through eternity. Even when we fell in love as children, we wanted to “live happily ever after” Then we come in contact with death for the first time (maybe that of a grandparent or someone close to us) and we are shocked out of our cocoons. We realize that life does not last forever.

Where is humanity headed?After this initial death shock from childhood. We somehow slip back into that feeling of permanence. Here is how. Let’s have a little thought experiment: What do you think life on earth would look like by the year 2789?  I’ve gotten some really imaginative answers to this question. These answers range from the highly optimistic such as: “We will have Wireless electricity”, “Intergalactic travel (travelling from our galaxy to another) would be as easy as inter-city transport. We will even be able to travel beyond our solar system”, “We would have made contact with aliens and conduct business with them”, “We would have developed the technology for time travel”, “Humans would have bio-hacked their DNA and we will be able to live for hundreds and thousands of years if not forever”.

There are also those who are terribly and hopelessly pessimistic with answers like: “We would have been enslaved by the aliens”. “The humans of that time would be struggling to rebuild civilization after the nuclear annihilation of world war 3”. “Humans would have evolved further to some sort of super beings and those left among the previous humans would become the animals of that time”.

Don’t forget where we started from. We’re supposed to discuss how we slipped back into a false feeling of permanence after childhood. Okay let’s connect the dots. Now if you look at all those replies- both the pessimistic and the optimistic ones. You’ll realize a subtle assumption- Nobody thinks humans will go extinct- Even those who have believed that the worst case scenario would occur are also stuck in the belief that humanity would somehow be around forever.

The data disagrees. If we objectively consider the facts, it doesn’t seem likely that humanity will last as long as we think. Let’s start with the most obvious: You’ve probably heard that a group of respected scientists have put the world’s clock at 2 minutes to midnight. They are not joking. Our planet is degrading and may not hold out for too long. Guys like Elon Musk are making plans to ship some specimens among us out to Mars. The question is will we get away from here early enough?

Apart from earth expiring. There’s also us- humans. We came close to nuclear annihilation during the Cuban missile crisis. Well there’s North Korea now, and bad news- the president is not John F. Kennedy. The man presently in the oval office is more likely to punch in launch codes than to dial Kim Jong Un’s private phone.

 

So when next you’re thinking about the year 2789, imagine the universe devoid of humans. That’s more like it.

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Don’t Fight the Last War

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FIGHTING THE NEXT WAR INSTEAD OF THE LAST WAR CAN BE DIFFICULT TO GET RIGHT

War, the absolute opposite of peace is a state of conflict between disagreeing parties and often comes with destruction and mortality.  In the world’s history, war, although minimal, is an on-going occurrence with two world wars particularly standing out. With armies dedicated to fighting wars, it is important for them to be well oiled, solidly structured and properly functioning for possible future wars.

 

The ‘Fighting the Last War’ Strategy

“Fighting the last war” is a strategic term used to refer to the situation where one focuses on what happened rather than what is likely to happen. The well-known saying is “Generals always fight the last war” where they tend to cling to previously used strategies and techniques to fight future wars that they will be faced with.

 

The ‘Fighting the Next War’ Strategy

This phrase acknowledges that analyzing past wars is important, but also says that we must always be prepared for the eventuality of a future one. This is done by coming up with new strategies according to the situation. It states by doing this, it increases the chances of winning the next war.

Many opponents have advocated that fighting the next war strategy is the best although this is not necessarily true. This strategy is hard to get right because when you fight the next war, you are inviting more room for error. This is because you are basically testing an unknown strategy, on a team in a hostile war zone. Even the name says it, you are already fighting the next war before you get there. You may guess right, but you may also guess wrong, which can be costly.

 

The Solution

A powerful solution that you could get your war strategy to go right for you is to combine these two. The familiarity and lessons learned benefits from fighting the last war, and the innovation and current situation analysis benefits from fighting the next war work great together.

 

Application to Business

Technology is rapidly changing and companies need to figure out what change is coming and turn it to their advantage. If they stay the same and don’t change they are likely to go out of business in the long run. If you look at the 20 largest companies, it is surprising how much turnover there is over time. So just as in war, businesses can’t fight the last war but need to figure out what the next one is likely to look like.

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Predicting the Future

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What does it take to predict the future and can anyone really do it? There is an article on the BBC website that claims some people are much better at predicting the future than others. It can be a range of different people, not necessarily the ones you expect, so who knows, you might have this talent.

What Have You Predicted?

We are not saying that people can predict when there will be a tornado or something like that. We are talking about looking at and evaluating things involved with humans. The article asked if you foresaw the election of President Obama early on in his first campaign before he was even nominated by the Democratic Party? Did you have a sense of what was happening with the Arab Spring before it broke wide open? If so, you might have the knack.

People with Extraordinary Talents

People with exceptional talents were at one time not believed or considered outliers but now they are being studied. These include people with amazing memories who can remember what happened almost every day they have lived. There are others who are considered super tasters with a finely tuned sense of tasted. Then there are people called super recognizers who only need to see a person once to be able to remember their face years later. It is thought that these talents might be aided by genetic differences.

Genetic Differences for Super Forecasters?

It is thought that unlike these other talents, super forecasting is not aided by a genetic trait but is more a learned skill and experience helps with this. However, Philip Tetlock from the University of Pennsylvania found that top political forecasters had a record only slightly better than random chance and probably not that different from chimpanzees throwing darts.

Military is Interested

The military is very interested in predicting political change so they can be prepared and not be caught off guard by unrest, revolutions, or terrorism in different parts of the world. ARPA (Advanced Research Projects Activity) sponsored a four year project called the Good Judgment Project to find improved methods for political forecasting.

They took thousands of people and they came from a wide range of backgrounds. It gave them all questionnaires and asked them to make predictions. Not just yes or no, but asked for possibilities of something happening in percentage terms. Things like will Greece remain in the EU or will the president of Zimbabwe stay in power.

Results

After one year, they analyzed the results from over two thousand people. Out of all these, they took the best 2% and put them on teams going forward. By the end of the second year, this super forecaster group was as much as four times better than everyone else in the experiment.

Political expertise didn’t necessarily help although it might have in some cases, but a pharmacist was one of the top forecasters.

What Makes a Good Forecaster?

The top forecasters usually scored higher on intelligence than other participants. Another key to their ability was that they were very open minded. Some make the mistake of interpreting open mindedness as being liberal but psychologists have come to view it as an indication of your ability to deal with uncertainty.

Being open minded means that these forecasters can analyze the problem from all sides and not get stuck in a narrow point of view that will affect their predictions. It also means they can change their mind when new evidence comes up.

Training

Also open mindedness means they are more aware of their own strengths and weaknesses. This helps them from making mistakes. However, Tetlock found even the best forecasters can stumble. He has done a bit of training to see if it makes a difference.

They have found that if you get into the details and try and get an inside view, it can lower performance. Stepping back and looking at broader sets of data and historical trends can often be a better way to evaluate. Also, by remembering that people tend to over estimate the risk of frightening events like terrorist attacks. If you look at a best case and a worst case scenario, it can open you to more possibilities and balance your view point.

Teams are Better or Worse?

Some people feel that if you have teams of people, you will get group think and the results will be worse than individuals would do on their own. However, with the right training, Tetlock found the teams performed better than individuals. They got training on the best way to critique the viewpoints of others and the need to respond in a positive manner to other viewpoints.

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1493 and the Future

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OK, so what does 1493 have to do with the future? You might say it is like the flap of the butterflies wing causing a tornado miles away. Hopefully you are familiar with that analogy and it doesn’t need to be explained. 1493 is a book that talks about events in human history and the unforeseen ecological impacts they had, and the unforeseen impacts that these ecological changes had on humans. It is a rather amazing book.

But the general point is, that even with all the scientific tools we have now, we don’t have perfect knowledge of what our current actions will have on the future. Either for the environment or for humans. It would be nice if the doubters of global warming would read this book and realize how devastating unintended consequences can be. It would be better to be prudent even if you don’t believe in global warming even though all the science points in that direction.

Hitchhikers

When Europeans started moving around the globe, they brought hitchhikers. In many ways, these hitchhikers had more of an impact on the newly discovered parts of the world than the humans did. Between the two, it was often a lethal one two punch.

Who were these hitchhikers? Insects, pigs, cows, horses, bacteria, viruses, worms and more. The one with the biggest impact were probably malaria and yellow fever. Yellow fever is caused by a virus and malaria by a parasite called Plasmodium which single celled but is not a bacteria. Neither existed in the Americas but mosquitoes who could harbor them did exist. So when the Europeans came, and also brought some African slaves, the mosquitoes bit them and then started transferring the diseases throughout the Americas.

Conquering the Americas

Before these diseases, many parts of the Americas were more densely populated than much of Europe. The native people aggressively farmed and shaped the land but in ways that were different and therefore not familiar to Europeans so they didn’t always recognize what they were seeing. By some estimates 90% of the native population was wiped out by disease and the culture was altered by this disaster. There weren’t many people left to fight the Europeans when they showed up.

Why Africans were chosen for Slavery

On top of that, it became so deadly for everyone that it caused a number of changes in the way the colonization proceeded. Some of the native population had been enslaved and used for labor. Sometimes these slaves were purchased from other natives in exchange for knives, guns, and other metal implements. They also brought in indentured servants. However, the death rate was up to 80%. It was much lower in African slaves, so the importing of African slaves exploded.

Little Ice Age

One odd twist was know as the Little Ice Age. It was global warming in reverse. It is surmised that the Little Ice Age occurred because of the malaria and yellow fever and other diseases killing so many of the native Americans. Many fields which once existed grew over at this time because no one was around to tend them. So all over the Americas there was a large increase in the amount of forest and this led to a cooling of the planet.

Social Institutions

The development of social institutions such as government, legal, administrative and anything else you can think of also seemed to depend on where malaria was and wasn’t. In New England, Europeans settled there and developed strong social institutions. In Central America, many of the colonies ended up being solely extractive. The Europeans tried to settle the lands but it became such a death trap that most just managed the properties from afar and saw it only as a place to get profit from. They did nothing to build up the institutions. In one Central American country, when it gained independence in the 1970s, its first university had only been founded a few years before and all the other institutions were equally shaky.

And all of this is just the effect from diseases. We haven’t even gone in to the other creatures and plants’ impacts. We will do that another time.

 

 

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Bad Future Predictions

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The Huffington Post had a funny article about predictions of the future that didn’t quite work out.

1859 – People that Edwin Drake knew thought he was bonkers for trying to drill in the Earth to find oil. Whales were plentiful and would do just fine.

1873 – The Queen’s surgeon said that it would be crazy to do surgery on chest, abdomen and brain and that no one would ever do such an inhumane thing.

1878 – An Oxford professor thought the electric light was a gimmick for the grand Paris Exhibition and that it would fade away and never be heard of again.

1883 – Of all people, someone as intelligent and learned as Lord Kelvin thought that x-rays were a hoax.

1888 – Possibly his proof was that no one had so far been successful but a professor Joseph Le Conte felt that this proved that a self propelled flying machine was impossible.  Good think most inventors don’t listen to this kind of logic.

1903 – A bank president told Henry Ford’s attorney not to invest in Ford Motor Company because cars were a fad and we would always use horses.

1912 – The Syracuse Herald was a bit too fast with their reporting on the Titanic. They claimed that all passengers had been saved and the ship was damaged but making its way to Halifax. Wrong!

1919 – Hall of fame baseball player, Tris Speaker, said it was a supremely dumb idea to convert Babe Ruth from the best left handed pitcher in all of baseball to a right fielder. However, the Babe went on to hold the record for the most home runs in one year for 34 years and the most career home runs record for 39 years.

1920 – The New York Times decided that a rocket would never be able to get out of Earth’s atmosphere. Maybe their descendants were the ones who said the moon walk was a hoax staged on a Hollywood set.

1944 – A modeling agency told Marilyn Monroe that she should get a secretarial job or get married.

1948 – A radio pioneer declared that TV was just a “flash in the pan”

1955 – Variety magazine proclaimed that Rock n Roll would disappear by June of that year.

2005 – And of course since this was in the Huffington Post, the last is that the LA Weekly said when the Huffington Post was launched that it would not survive.

 

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History of Predicting the Future

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Many people have tried to predict the future. It seems deeply embedded in various religions. Jesus was part of a group predicting the apocalypse. However the meaning of the word has changed. It originally meant a revelation of God’s will rather than the end of the world as it has come to mean now.

Jewish Predictions

Jewish belief in the apocalypse is that the current world is ruled by evil and that a Messiah will come and deliver believers to a new era that will by ruled by God. Predictions of when the Messiah would come were discouraged so that people wouldn’t lose their belief if the prediction was wrong. We have been waiting 2,000 years.

There have been many false predictions over the years. You would think that people would look at the track record and avoid making predictions of the end of the world. Here are some of the ones.

The final battle was going to be fought in the year 66-70 as the Jews battled the Romans. Then Hilary Poitiers said it would end in 365 and Martin of Tours said it would happen before the year 400.

Christian predictions

Then the year 500, 793 and 800 and a waffle by Gregory of Tours saying 799-806. Have you noticed that a lot of the predictions are for turn of the century and turn of the millennium. They probably didn’t stop to think that telling time in this way was a human construct and there was nothing special about these dates.

Then there was 848, 992-5 by an assortment of Christians, January 1, 1000 and 1033. We skip the 1100s and the end of the world predictions start up again in the 1200s. and 1300s, skip the 1400s and then more in the 1500s. (There might have been some in the 1100s and 1400s but they weren’t mentioned in the article we read.

The Demise Gets More Frequent

There were many predictions of the end of the world in the 1500, 1600s, 1700s and 1800s. Some reworked their calculations when the world didn’t end after the first date they predicted. Cotton Mather tried 3 times. It is not clear if the increase was because with a greater population and therefore more people who might make predictions or that historical recordation improved and we just will never know the true extend of predictions in earlier times.

Aliens enter the picture

In the 1900s the bad predictions did not let up. Jeane Dixon got this one wrong. Unfortunately for Jim Jones’ followers in Guyana, Jim Jones decided not to wait for the apocalypse and created his own. Then Charles Manson murdered people to start a race war that would create an apocalypse. The Heaven’s Gate Cult believed an alien spacecraft was in the shadow of Halley’s comet and we were supposed to die as it came by so that our souls could get to the spacecraft. Thirty nine of them committed suicide so they could get to the spaceship.

And the hits just keep on coming. It seems like they are getting more frequent. When will people learn?

 

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